The Dapto Forecast | July 20

By Simon Orchard
A 12-race program – with starts at 297m, 520m and 600m - kicks off at 6:55pm on Thursday, July 20 at Dapto. Here’s our preview of the card.

SPORTSBET BEST BET

R8 - #1 We Don’t Share | Andy Lord
The former Million Dollar Chase Maiden winner has worked his way back into great form since spending six months off the track with injury earlier this year, winning his last two starts and running three placings to go with it.

His last win at Wentworth Park on Vic Peters/Peter Mosman night in 29.80 was a new Wenty Park track and trip PB and he seems to be relishing life in the Lord kennel.

He’ll go to Dapto for his first crack at a middle-distance event, drawing Box 1 in a mixed 4th/5th grade event against some experienced campaigners and Group 1 finalists My Margarita and Cumbria Days, as well as last start winner Charisma Girl.

The scratching of kennelmate Tommy Kade from Box 2 helps, and if can run out the trip, he looms as our best bet on the card.

“It all depends on whether he can run 600m. He’s bred to run it but he’s got two things against him, he hasn’t been to Dapto and he’s never been 600m. The small field should suit him and if he can get to the front early, it should help him find his way around the joint. Box 1 with two vacant alleys beside him should help him get out too so he’s got a good chance,” Lord said. 

We Don't Share took out the May edition of the Million Dollar Chase Maiden in 2022


NEXT BEST BET

R7 - #5 Sweet Redemption | Lakis Michael
Has certainly been a consistent runner for the Lakis kennel since debuting on May 11, with six starts producing three wins and three minor placings.

The daughter of Orson Allen has already saluted twice at Dapto (albeit over the shorts) and does seem to like the track with winning runs of 17.10 and 17.17 for the 297m trip.

She races over 520m on Thursday night in a mixed 4th/5th grade event and could offset the Box 5 draw with her good early pace. 

A third-place finish behind Leg Speed last start stopped the clock in 30.58 (her best is 30.25) but she was forced to run three and four wide for the majority of the trip. With even luck this time around, she can run a bold race out in front.

RACE OF THE NIGHT
This contest looms as an absolute lottery with all eight runners’ best times separated by just a length.

Oamaru Bale hasn’t won in a long time (November 17, 2022) and has started at double figure odds in her last 14 outings. She has been racing a lot in mixed 4th/5th grade events so does find an easier race but would have to improve on her last few starts to figure here.

Teskey owns the best track and trip PB of 17.15 and although she’s only won at the track once in 14 attempts, she does have a great Box 2 record of 7: 2-4-0. One of the quickest away so the low draw should help her run a bold race.

Cedar has won three times over the Dapto 297m with a best of 17.17. Never jumped in the white rug but he does seem to enjoy low draws with two wins and a second from three runs out of Boxes 1 and 2 collectively. Has form behind Perfect Dawn and Trunkey John which stacks up.

Rockstar Sid and Zambora Nut will be doing it toughest from the middle alleys with early pace likely to come from inside and out. Rockstar Sid is yet to win at Dapto in 11 attempts but could trail the 2 and 3 dogs into the race, while Zambora Nut does have decent form at the track (11: 3-2-2) but will need luck from Box 5.

Mount York is our pick and seems suited by the wider draw. Has raced some good dogs in free-for-all and non-graded company at Dapto and Bulli this year, and has won four races to go with nine placings at the track.

More Crackers and Jo John John appear to be the back markers in a pretty similarly classed field so would need clear passage and trouble inside to feature at the end.

The Dogs Tips
3. Cedar
2. Teskey

TRAINER IN Focus | Simon Rhodes

Race 3 | Oamaru Bale (Box 1) – she can run 17.2 in trials. She’s more suited over further but has had a few niggles and has come on season so just building back her back to a longer trip.

Race 4 | Oboya Bale (Box 4) – she’s a sister to sister to Kelsey Bale. Dan Gibbons had her and reckon she was as quick as Kelsey for 400m but can’t see out further. Tries hard every week, usually runs into something a bit quicker. Has gone 16.82.

Holtorf Bale (Box 3) – don’t know what you’re going to get, if he lands on the lure, hell break 17. If he misses the kick he’s like a dodgem car. 

Galen Bale (Box 6) – new one, trying to work her out. trialled 17.25 first look at the track and looked like she got lost last week. Put her around for a look this week.

Race 7 | Widdicombe Bale (Box 4) – she’s been pretty strong and if she gets into a nice position she’ll be alright. Last week she had no luck but she was up against Leg Speed so she wouldn’t have won anyway. She’s a 29.9 bitch at her best.

Widdicombe Bale has won once in seven starts at Dapto since joining the Rhodes kennel

Race 9 | Julipa Bale (Box 1) – she’s quick early. Went up to top grade and couldn’t quite match it with them so back in grade. Box 1 should help as she’s a railer.

Purnia Bale (Box 5) – I’ve been thinking she’s going to win every start for the last few weeks but she hasn’t put it together. She’s a 17/17.1 bitch and has run a few placings but will probably win when I’m not expecting her to.

Throssell Bale (Box 8) – probably a 16.9 bitch and last week was her first run in a month after cutting a webbing in the Thunderbolt heats. She went 17.1 in a trial after stumbling early.

Best Chance | Widdicombe Bale, if she gets into a good position around the first corner, she’s very strong.

BOX STATS


RACE BY RACE SELECTIONS
R1 – 5, 6, 3, 4
R2 – 1, 6, 4, 8
R3 – 6, 3, 2, 4
R4 – 5, 3, 4, 8
R5 – 6, 3, 1, 2
R6 – 7, 2, 4, 8
R7 – 5, 7, 4, 3
R8 – 1, 2, 7, 8
R9 – 4, 3, 6, 1
R10 – 6, 3, 7, 8
R11 – 8, 7, 3, 6
R12 – 2, 4, 3, 6

QUADDIE
R5 – 6, 3
R6 – 7, 2
R7 – 5, 7
R8 – 1, 2
$20 for 125%