The Dapto Forecast | July 13

By Simon Orchard
A 12-race program – with starts at 297m, 520m and 600m - kicks off at 6:52pm on Thursday, July 13 at Dapto. Here’s our preview of the card.

SPORTSBET BEST BET
R7 - #1 Charisma Girl | Denice Warren

Yet to step out at Dapto in her 36 career starts and hasn’t raced over 600m before so there’s a few potential knocks, but her form over 520m this year at Wentworth Park suggests she can run well here.

She’s had eight starts in town for just two wins and two placings but a couple of those unplaced efforts came behind the likes of Dapto Silver Collar winner Modern Swinger and Taree Cup finalist Zambora Tiger (who ran 29.75 in beating her).

Her closing effort on Peter Mosman/Vic Peters night behind Fat Boy’s Charm (see below) suggests she will see out the trip and Box 1 certainly helps as she’s yet to miss the placings in five starts in red. 

Fifth grade company seems like a good starting point for her first middle distance attempt, with the Lord pair, Palawa Queen and Spread The Load, looming as the hardest to beat. 

“She’s desperate for the fence and Box 1 over 600m is a big advantage at Dapto. She likes Wenty Park so I think she’ll enjoy the circle at Dapto and it’s an easier 600m to have a go at. She’s untapped as far as 600m goes but isn’t she. If she can get on the lure, she’s always a hard bitch to run down. I’m just putting her in, hoping she can run it out but it’s been a good strong breeding line so I’m hoping she’ll go well,” Warren said.

NEXT BEST BET
R4 - #3 Lochinvar Hawk | Ruth King

Races at his home track for the first time after an impressive win at Wentworth Park on debut on June 28. The time of 30.22 was fine for a first starter and he really kicked clear of the chasing pack with a middle section time of 18.20.

Zipping Khan took ground off him late but the quinella gapped the rest of the field by close to 10 lengths. The greyhound that ran fifth in that race, Oceanside, has since won it’s maiden to frank the form. While Zipping Khan goes around on Wednesday night (July 12) in a maiden at Wenty so keep an eye on that run too. 

You’d imagine Lochinvar Hawk, like most of the King runners, has been educated on the Dapto circuit and from Box 3, should be jostling with Ocean Boaz [Box 1] for the early lead. 

Lochinvar Hawk is a litter brother to Lochinvar Pearl who also races for the King’s, with that greyhound winning twice at Dapto in the last two months in OK times of 30.20 and 30.49.

Ruth King is striking at 25% around the State so far in 2023
RACE OF THE NIGHT
Race 12 | Sportsbet Free For All | 297m

Can be hard to line up the FFA races over the short course at Dapto with a lot of experienced chasers going around each Thursday night at the track. This race is no different with just over two lengths separating the field according to track and trip PB’s.

Skedaddle Lucy is our tip due mostly to her securing the prized inside draw, with 10 starts from the red alley producing five wins and two minors (including a quick 17.02 run at Dapto back on May 18). She ran 17.32 seven days ago to finish third at Dapto behind Ninja Mac (who jumps from Box 5) but with the aide of the cherry, she should be hard to hold out early.

The pair of Simon Rhodes runners are relative unknowns in the region. Galen Bale (Box 3) is having her first start for Rhodes after arriving from Victoria, and although she hasn’t won since April, Rhodes has produced first up winners in this scenario before. Thybulle Bale is the latest example of that, winning on debut for the kennel back on May 18 in a sharp time of 16.95. She hasn’t been able to replicate that in recent runs at Dapto though, with moderate efforts of 17.26 and 17.30 in her two runs since.

Ronny Alcock also has a dual threat in the race with litter brothers Ninja Mac (Box 5) and Ebony Moss (Box 6) drawn alongside one another. Ninja Mac has had every one of his 39 starts at Dapto and has 11 wins and 17 minors to his name to go with a PB of 16.90 (although he has failed to break 17.00 since February 16). Ebony Moss on the other hand produced his best effort of 16.88 less than a month ago and has won three of his last four over the Dapto 297m. 

Under The Thumb is a grand old stager who would be right in the mix at his best. He won in masters grade at Dapto two weeks ago in a sharp time of 17.06, but would need a bit of luck from Box 7 (13 career starts for two wins) to take this out.

Under The Thumb has run 11 times over the Dapto 297m for five wins and five minor placings


Interestingly, Slingshot Queen is the only FFA graded greyhound in the race. She has been running well at Richmond of late and the inside draw should help with her quick getaway. While Oriental Onyx has gone around at $81 and $101 (twice) in his three starts in NSW.

The Dogs Tips | 
#1 Skeddaddle Lucy
#7 Under The Thumb

TRAINER IN Focus | Lakis Michael
Linkin Girl (R2) - she had one start in May but got injured so I gave her some time off and she’s going a lot better now. Ran 30.81 at Dapto last week but am hopeful she’ll go better over further a little bit later on. Should go straight from Box 5 and she’s the better chance of the two in the race. I’m hopeful she can run around the 30 second mark. 

Virtuous Circle (R2) - a good friend of mind owns her but she got a bump in her first start and maybe lost a bit of confidence. She seems like she’s starting to improve in that area and her last two runs have been her best. She should go straight too but she’s more likely to be a 30.20 greyhound at her best.

Brockie’s Girl (R3) - I just got her off Jenny Brown and will train her while Jenny recovers from a broken wrist. She has some ability but her second section over longer trips sometimes let’s her down. I think 600m is her best distance but she improved a lot in her last start at Wentwroth Park over 700m (second to Palawa Queen in 42.49). She’s a good hard chaser but this race will be tough for her.

Brockie's Girl has two wins over the Dapto 600m from four attempts

Sweet Redemption (R8) - I think she’s a real up-and-comer. She’s strong, she chases hard and she’s been running good time in trials. She ran home in 11.8 at Dapto in a slip the other day and I think she’s a city class dog in time. I think she will handle Box 8 but if Mark Gatt’s dog Leg Speed repeats what he did last week, we can’t beat him [a near track record of 29.37].

Numb (R9) - I thought something wasn’t quite right with her so we got some tests done and she had a liver infection. That seems to be fixed now so hopefully she’s on the way back. She broke the track record at Thirlmere a couple of weeks ago and she had a good run at Dapto on Monday so we’re happy with her. She’s a smart beginner so I don’t think Box 4 will worry her and she’ll be strong to the line.

Best Chance | I think Numb is the best hope as the others are all a bit young. I wouldn’t be surprised if Linkin Girl runs well but Numb is the one.

BOX STATS


RACE BY RACE SELECTIONS
R1 – 3, 2, 5, 1
R2 – 6, 5, 4, 1
R3 – 1, 4, 7, 5
R4 – 3, 1, 4, 6
R5 – 6, 4, 2, 3
R6 – 8, 6, 4, 1
R7 – 1, 2, 6, 8
R8 – 2, 1, 4, 6
R9 – 5, 2, 7, 1
R10 – 5, 6, 2, 7
R11 – 4, 1, 2, 6
R12 – 1, 7, 5, 4

QUADDIE
R5 - 6
R6 – 8, 6, 4, 1
R7 – 1, 2, 6, 8
R8 – 2
$20 for 125%